Judgment day nuclear war what will happen. "Doomsday Clock": how much time is left before a nuclear war

When will a nuclear war on Earth be inevitable? From the very moment of the invention of the atomic bomb, this question has been of concern to all mankind: people who went to rallies condemning the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki; writers who fantasize about colonizing Mars where lethal missiles can't reach; experts who are seriously trying to predict the onset of "Day X". For more than 70 years, the creators of the Doomsday Clock have given their answer to it.

Signs need to be deciphered

The project was started in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a journal of the University of Chicago. The idea behind Doomsday Clock is simple. Midnight was taken as the starting point, symbolizing the onset of a nuclear cataclysm. The time remaining up to this point shows how tense the situation is in the world - the closer the arrow to 12, the worse.

The decision on changes to the Clock is made annually in November by the Board of Directors of the magazine together with invited experts. At the same time, the verdict, as a rule, strongly depends on the knowledge of the audience: there is no specific formula for calculating time, so scientists simply discuss world problems and make their forecast based on the entire discussion. They try to take into account not only nuclear threats, but also, for example, climate change, the growth of nationalist sentiments, dangers like cyber wars and bioterrorism, and much more.

Of course, such assessments are highly subjective. But the creators of the Doomsday Clock never considered it a perfect predictor. nuclear war. Rather, the authors see them as a kind of symbol designed to inform the world community about threats.

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In total, the hands of the Clock, originally set at 23:53, moved 24 times. The last one - in January 2018, for 30 seconds. Since then, they froze at 23:58 - a record dangerous time. The same number was only in 1953, when the USSR and the USA, with a difference of only nine months, tested their thermonuclear bombs.

The Clock showed the least in 1991. Then the probability of a nuclear midnight by as much as 17 minutes - until 23:43 - pushed back the signing of the treaty on the reduction of strategic offensive arms. But since then, the hands have been gradually approaching midnight.

First, in 1995, they were moved three minutes due to the "leakage" of nuclear technology from former USSR. In 1998, nuclear weapons testing by India and Pakistan came just five minutes closer to midnight. Two minutes closer to the likelihood of a catastrophe in 2002 and 2007 were the US abandonment of the ABM treaty, the growing confrontation between Moscow and Washington, and the development of the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea. Three minutes have been "stolen" from mankind by insufficient progress in nuclear disarmament.

What the future has in store for us

In 2017 and 2018, the creators of the Doomsday Clock, contrary to established tradition, brought the hands closer to midnight not by minutes, but by 30 seconds. According to Bulletin board member Lawrence Krauss, this was done so as not to distort the perception of change.

The problems to which attention was drawn are no less serious. In the first case, the statements of US President Donald Trump about plans to build up the American nuclear arsenal forced the experts to move the arrows, in the second, the testing of new missiles in the DPRK. And despite the fact that the danger of these threats then became a little less, in 2019, experts nevertheless decided not to change the time.

However, it is quite possible that changes will occur as early as 2020. In a report for 2018, experts drew attention to the fact that in order to avoid a global catastrophe, it is time for the United States to stop going into open confrontation with its opponents and reduce interest in the affairs of the Middle Eastern countries, Moscow and Washington - to stop political confrontation, China - to put pressure on the North Korea to relieve stress.

To date, none of these recommendations have been implemented. Moreover, the first months of 2019 do not add optimism: the US and Russia have announced the suspension of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the dialogue on the Korean issue seems to have reached a dead end again. So in November, the creators of the Doomsday Clock will not have the easiest choice.

Doomsday Clock was stopped at 23:58 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists from the University of Chicago in 2018. Formally, the reasons for this step were the persistence of North Korea in the nuclear program, as well as global climate change. But everyone understands that the main games that affect the position of the arrows are unfolding between NATO, Russia and China. Two minutes to midnight is an almost unprecedented value in a 72-year-old hour. This was observed in the era of thermonuclear tests, and even in the Cuban Missile Crisis, the position of the arrows was not so extreme. Paradoxically, what we see now in the world is nothing like the times when bombers were loaded with atomic bombs before taking off, and US and Soviet tanks aimed at each other at Checkpoint Charlie. The approach of a real military conflict, at first glance, does not give itself away.

Apart from the hysteria that most of the media whips up, no one is particularly ready for serious military operations in the spirit of the Second World War. There are only two brigades of the US Armed Forces in Europe, which is no comparison with the almost 300,000-strong contingent in the most intense years " cold war". Now resistance Russian army from the NATO countries in the European theater of operations will last at best 1.5-2 months. And even less if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons. But even now, and during the Cold War, such a blitzkrieg would have turned out to be a dead end. In the end, the leadership of the country would face the prospect of managing the destroyed territories of European countries with a hostile population and serious radioactive contamination. The United States would not have waited long, and would have brought down first tactical nuclear weapons, and then intercontinental missiles. And this, in fact, is the end of civilization in the form we are used to. The stable balance between the two superpowers of the 20th century somehow protected us from Armageddon.

A banal example of what can happen if there is no equal rival on the horizon is the history of clumsy US aggression in the 90s and 2000s. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya got under the rink, and this could not but annoy the other players. Since then, the hands of the doomsday clock, after a short delay associated with the collapse of the USSR, began to inexorably approach midnight.

Another worrying factor bringing the war closer to us was the change of generations in the leadership of the world's leading countries. Young people came to power, who know about the horrors of the Second World War at best from the pages of university textbooks. For them, the concept of nuclear deterrence becomes only a burden on defense budget country. It is increasingly difficult for leaders and the expert community to understand the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. For them, it can be just another click on their smartphone. On the other hand, in the West it is very clearly understood that any fighting on their own territory will inevitably lead to a sharp internal reaction leading to a change of power. That is why third countries become the arena of future (and modern) battles, which does not at all exclude a direct clash of the main participating countries. Now Ukraine is becoming such a territory, which may well push Russia and NATO head-on. Possible triggers for local wars could be aggressive attempts to undermine the political system in Belarus or strikes against Russian bases in Syria.

Who will be the first to use nuclear weapons in hypothetical local clashes between Russia, China and NATO? Still, this power will be kept in a holster: modern military equipment allows you to successfully complete most tasks on the battlefield without annoying the enemy once again with nuclear strikes. According to the experts of the weekly "Profil", this is indicated by the experience of the Second World War, when none of the participating countries decided to use chemical weapons. But the potential of the armies in this was simply enormous: it was possible for both Germany and Soviet Union just fill it with "chemistry". But they did not dare, everyone was afraid of retribution. However, it is worth mentioning an alternative assessment of this judgment: in all countries, the chemical protection service for the army and civilian population was so well developed that it made spraying toxic substances virtually useless.

Third World War impossible? It is already underway, although it is distinguished by much smaller losses in human resources. Numerous conflicts on the periphery: Georgia in 2008, the Arab Spring, Syria, Ukraine and many more petty wars brewing. It is this picture of a global war that is emerging at the present time. They talked about it back in the 60s and even gave the name - "proxy war", or proxy war (proxy war). Usually several countries are fighting on the territory of a small problematic state using the resources of the latter, often hiding behind " military aid to the fraternal people. A typical conflict of this type was the war in Spain, when Germany and the USSR tried on weapons to each other, rehearsing for a big massacre. Later, Korea, Vietnam and, with reservations, Afghanistan became such arenas. Now we see something similar in Syria. Proxy wars, as cruel as it sounds, are very good for the planet as a whole. The countries “blow off steam”, not daring to exchange direct blows. This was not even during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The only threat to peace in "civilized" countries is mistakes on the periphery, when hotheads either strike at the semi-mythical PMC "Wagner", then "Tomahawks" are massively shot down. In fact, Russia and the United States are very indirectly, but still at war with each other.

But such a benevolent picture can be destroyed by the rejection of two important treaties: the INF Treaty and START-3. The first one has already been torn apart, and the second one will predictably not be extended in 2021. And the problem of a global scale here will be created by China, which has a lot of medium-range missiles, which is very annoying to the United States. The build-up by the United States of a group of tactical missiles will inevitably provoke a response from China, including in terms of expanding the intercontinental nuclear group. In this, China is still seriously behind both Russia and the United States. In full accordance with the snowball effect, the remaining major operators of nuclear forces will begin to build up their own arsenals. And here also hypersonic weapons will arrive in time with a new round of the arms race. The redistribution of deterrence arsenals is inevitable, and it cannot pass without upheavals.

As a result, everything goes to the fact that in the coming years the Doomsday Clock will “push” another 30 seconds closer to midnight. The question is whether the main perpetrators of the switch will pay attention to this.

Image copyright Getty Images

The Doomsday Clock, which measures in minutes the time remaining for mankind before death, froze at two minutes before midnight. This symbolic clock was created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists magazine of the University of Chicago in 1947, when the possibility of the world's death in a nuclear catastrophe was first realized.

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On Thursday, the next position of the minute hand of the clock was announced - it remained in the same dangerous position as last year. The magazine's editors said in a statement that this means "the normalization of a very dangerous world."

For the first time, the watch reached such a mark in 1953, when the USA and the USSR conducted tests hydrogen bomb. This year was the third time that the clock was so close to midnight.

In 1984, after the aggravation of relations between the United States and the USSR as a result of the crash of a passenger airliner shot down by Soviet fighters on Far East, the clock was at three minutes to midnight.

Why has the clock stopped?

During a ceremony in Washington, the magazine said the stoppage of the doomsday clock was not good news at all.

“While the clock has remained at the same mark since 2018, it should not be considered a sign of stability, but a stern warning to politicians and citizens around the world,” said Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the magazine publisher.

"This new abnormal state of the world is too fragile and too dangerous to accept," Bronson said at the ceremony.

Former California Gov. Jerry Brown, who sits on the company's board of directors, also believes that "we are playing Russian roulette with humanity."

The company's statement acknowledges the improvement in relations between the US and North Korea, but also notes the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and ongoing diplomatic conflicts between many countries of the world.

The group considers the presence of nuclear weapons and global warming to be the two main threats to the existence of mankind. She emphasizes that the new danger is the increasing use of information warfare to undermine democracy around the world.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The clock stopped at the same mark as last year

Herb Lin, a senior cybersecurity fellow at Stanford University, spoke about the specific risk of fake news.

"A world in which anger and fantasy replace the truth is terrible," he said.

In 1947, when the Doomsday Clock was introduced, the minute hand was set at seven minutes to midnight. Since then, it has been translated 23 times.

As recalled at the ceremony, the sketch of the clock was created by the artist Martil Langsdorf. She sought to illustrate the stories and sentiments of scientists concerned about the fate of the world in the age of atomic weapons, which they themselves created.

Today, the editors of the journal, which includes physicists and environmentalists from many countries, determines the position of the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock in consultation with a board of sponsors, which includes several Nobel Prize winners.

The arrows of the symbolic Doomsday Clock did not translate and they still show 23:58. This was announced on Thursday at a press conference in Washington by Rachel, President of the American The magazine Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

The symbolic doomsday clock, indicating the threat of a global catastrophe, was planned to be moved forward 30 seconds on January 24, 2019. The clock shows two minutes to midnight, this time was set in January 2018.

“The clock shows two minutes to nuclear midnight,” Rachel Bronson, president of Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which created the clock, announced at the time.

“Over the past year, we have seen how all the nuclear powers have invested in the development of their nuclear arsenals,” the editorial said.

“This year has been dangerous and chaotic, many of the risks that we assumed have not materialized. In 2017, we found that nuclear carelessness makes an already dangerous situation worse, and we realized again that minimizing evidence-based assessments of climate change and other global problems does not lead to better policies,” Bronson added.

In particular, the editorial noted "that the DPRK is conducting missile and nuclear tests," and "the US nuclear force configuration program leaves room for increasing the role of nuclear weapons."

The Doomsday Clock is a project of the Chicago University The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, started in 1947 by the creators of America's first atomic bomb. Periodically, the cover of the magazine publishes an image of a clock, with an hour and minute hand, showing a few minutes to midnight. The time left until midnight symbolizes the tension in the international situation and progress in the development of nuclear weapons. Midnight itself symbolizes the moment of the nuclear cataclysm.

The decision to move the arrows is made by the Board of Directors of the journal with the help of invited experts, including, in particular, 18 Nobel Prize winners.

Over the 70-year history of the project, the hands of the Clock changed their position 24 times, including the initial setting of seven minutes before midnight in 1947. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the world was on the verge of nuclear war. However, since the crisis was resolved very quickly, the Clock did not have time to react, and its readings did not change. From 1960 to 1963, the clock showed seven minutes (in 1963 this time was increased to twelve minutes).

Fluctuations of the minute hand of the doomsday clock over several decades

Wikimedia Commons

The year 1991 turned out to be the most prosperous, when the Cold War ended and an agreement on the reduction of strategic weapons was signed between the USSR and the USA - then the clock showed 17 minutes to midnight.

Since 2012, midnight has been inexorably approaching. The reason for changing the position of the arrows was the lack of progress in the reduction and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the continued inaction in the field of climate change issues, the launch in the United States and Russia of nuclear weapons modernization programs that contribute to a new arms race, the inability of the leaders of world powers to ensure the health and prosperity of human civilization.

In 2017, the hands were at half a minute, the reason for this was the US President's statements about the use of nuclear weapons, his skepticism about climate change, the development of artificial intelligence, as well as cyber threats.

Also, according to Bronson, fake news is a noteworthy threat to humanity. She cited the threat of war against Israel by Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif after he read fake news that Israel was threatening Pakistan with nuclear weapons.

In 2018, the hands were still at half a minute, the reason for this was the increase in tension in the world, especially scientists emphasized the danger of ongoing nuclear tests by North Korea.

“The major nuclear players are on the verge of starting a new arms race that will be very expensive and increase the risk of accidents and misunderstandings.

Nuclear weapons around the planet will become more rather than less common due to the investments of nations in their nuclear capabilities, ”the scientists noted.

This was the closest to midnight the position of the hands of the Doomsday Clock in history, in this position they were only in 1953, when the USSR and the USA tested their thermonuclear bombs with a difference of nine months.

I am more than sure that many of you have heard about the doomsday clock - the ominous name of some obscure clock that constantly translates closer to midnight.

In fact, this is a more interesting phenomenon than the periodic mention in the news bulletins. In addition, the clock is not only moved forward, there have been adjustments in the opposite direction. What does it depend on, what kind of watch is it, when did it appear and why shouldn't they be afraid? We will answer all questions in this article.

What is the doomsday clock?

You might think that the doomsday clock is a real clock that is standing or hanging somewhere. In reality, they exist only on the cover of a magazine that is a project of the University of Chicago. In fact, they do not even carry time, but mathematical probability. Midnight on the clock means a nuclear cataclysm and, in fact, the end of the world. The closer the clock is to this mark, the more likely the sad outcome. Sometimes the clock is set back. The fact that the movement of the arrows is not one-way is another confirmation that their position indicates precisely the probability of the end, and not the imminent inevitable end. The clock does not count, but makes it clear when the probability of the end of the world is highest.

Oddly enough, the clock was invented by the same people who invented atomic bomb. It was then, in 1947, they were set to 23:53, but very quickly transferred to 23:57, when in 1949 the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb.

The question arises why the clock at the very beginning was set exactly at 23:53. You will not like the answer ... It was done just like that. It's just that someone decided that exactly 7 minutes before a nuclear catastrophe looks beautiful. That is why on the cover of the Bulletin there was a clock with this time on the dial. No hidden meaning.

In the early years of the watch's existence, the decision to translate them was solely made by the editor-in-chief of the magazine. After his death in 1973, the decision is made by the Science and Security Council. This council includes experts and scientists from completely different fields of science. We can say that this way the clock has become more accurate.

What time does the doomsday clock show

Moving the hands forward 4 minutes in 1949 did not bring the clock to the nearest point from the end of the world. Just 4 years later, the US and the USSR tested thermonuclear bombs at about the same time. Then the clock was changed to 23:58. True, later, they were twice translated five minutes ago. This happened in 1960 and 1963.

In the first case, this was due to the awareness of the world community of the danger of the uncontrolled use of atomic weapons. Awareness was expressed in a large number of statements of different politicians on this topic. In the second case, the US and the USSR signed a nuclear test ban treaty. The Cuban Missile Crisis did not even prevent the clock from moving back. The tension rose quickly, but just as quickly subsided. The publication simply did not have time to respond to the threat.

In the future, the clash of interests in Vietnam, India's test of its first nuclear bomb, and much more affected the clock shift. The safest year was 1991, when the US and the USSR signed a strategic arms reduction treaty. This marked the end of the Cold War and allowed the clock to be set to 23:43.

It is worth noting that in addition to the threat of a nuclear strike by one of the parties, the doomsday clock was influenced, albeit to a lesser extent, by the ability to repel these strikes. The development of air defense systems slightly eased the tension.

Now the doomsday clock is set to 23:58. This is due to the great tension in the world caused by clashes in the Middle East, North Korea's testing of its nuclear weapons and trade wars of some countries, the largest of which is the conflict between the United States and China. In addition, now the doomsday clock is influenced not only by the situation on the arms market, but also by other factors.

What affects the doomsday clock

As conceived by the authors of the watch, the main factor influencing the position of the hands was precisely the nuclear threat. In 2007, the approach changed slightly. According to the authors of the Bulletin, humanity is slowly but surely moving towards catastrophic climate change. Now they have begun to influence the clock. Later, the position in society began to be taken into account as well. different countries and some other factors.

Against the background of relative stability in the field of strategic weapons, changes in the time remaining until midnight can be changed just by including new variables in the calculation.

Since 1991, the clock has been translated 9 times, of which the hands have swung back only once. This happened in 2010, when the United States promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and started negotiations with Russia to sign a new strategic offensive weapons treaty (START).

Since 2017, a new tradition has emerged to set clocks by 30 seconds. The gap until midnight is getting smaller, and you need to reduce the step. It is possible that soon they will translate for 10 seconds, or even one at a time.

Should I be afraid of the doomsday clock?

Not so long ago, an article was published on our website in which I gave examples of the promised ends of the world. Then, as an epilogue, I said that the end of the world is inevitable, but you should not be afraid of it. At the very least, you should not be afraid of him on a specific date. The probability of its occurrence in the infinite future, even according to the theory of probability, is one hundred percent. Is it easier for you to realize that in many billions of years the Sun, like all stars, will explode and the Earth will end? To be honest, I don't care what happens there.

Similarly, do not be afraid that the clock is moving closer to midnight. The closer they get to it, the more resistance their arrows will meet. It is one thing to swing nuclear fists when the collision is still far away and quite another when the finger is hovered over the button. At the helm of nuclear powers are people who understand that after a blow to other members of this club, an answer will follow and everything will end. It won't matter what happens next. That is why they will not allow such a collision. There are no winners in a nuclear war.

In this scenario, more likely, I think, is the mistake of someone in charge of air defense systems. Although, in this age of technology, there are probably systems that will not allow just one conditional sergeant to make a mistake in a game with such high stakes.

Let's put that option aside and move on with our lives. We have enough other problems to worry about what we cannot change.